I'll probably run them in parallel for a few weeks, but basically look to transition the survey to Substack -- this is entirely what I expected, because over the years I have noticed that once the responses rise over a certain threshold, the results don't tend to change much (e.g. after 3-400 votes, the answers will still be the same even if you get over 1000 votes)
In 1987 I started a sentiment survey on bondmarket outlook (I was then a young head of the bond trading dept in a medium sized bank) The participants were all the people we knew were active in the bond market appr some 200. It was made every 14 days. After some two years we identified a clear pattern. Inverted (!)the survey predicted the change in bondyields appr six month ahead. It will be interesting to see If that still holds today😊
Thanks Peter, yes that is interesting I have noticed that the equity survey tends to move more in step with the market, while the bond survey tends to be a few months ahead of turning points... will post charts shortly :-)
Thanks Richard, for sure, I have 2 issues, a minor one is that it adds too many parameters... but the biggest issue is I have been running the survey for almost 8 years now, and am reluctant to change the questions! (yep, classic "we've always done it this way" I know)
In practice, I feel like the composition of the answers do kind of reflect the shifting timeframe focus, but will post data shortly and you can see
The trend from October 2023 was/is too steep and unsustainable. The S&P is far extended from the March 2020 trend line and it is way extended from the 2009 trend line. I would not be surprised for it to come back to 2020 trend thru both price and time… TBD.
Good News!
The results on Substack are more or less identical to the results on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1781813741325320365
I'll probably run them in parallel for a few weeks, but basically look to transition the survey to Substack -- this is entirely what I expected, because over the years I have noticed that once the responses rise over a certain threshold, the results don't tend to change much (e.g. after 3-400 votes, the answers will still be the same even if you get over 1000 votes)
Results + data are live: https://www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-surveys-22-april-2024
In 1987 I started a sentiment survey on bondmarket outlook (I was then a young head of the bond trading dept in a medium sized bank) The participants were all the people we knew were active in the bond market appr some 200. It was made every 14 days. After some two years we identified a clear pattern. Inverted (!)the survey predicted the change in bondyields appr six month ahead. It will be interesting to see If that still holds today😊
Thanks Peter, yes that is interesting I have noticed that the equity survey tends to move more in step with the market, while the bond survey tends to be a few months ahead of turning points... will post charts shortly :-)
It seems that short term vs long term perspective could make a difference in the chart trends. Maybe a simple statement giving a time period.
Thanks Richard, for sure, I have 2 issues, a minor one is that it adds too many parameters... but the biggest issue is I have been running the survey for almost 8 years now, and am reluctant to change the questions! (yep, classic "we've always done it this way" I know)
In practice, I feel like the composition of the answers do kind of reflect the shifting timeframe focus, but will post data shortly and you can see
can you please make those a stacked chart please so we can see how they evolve over time. Like this:
https://shorturl.at/oAU46
Interesting, good idea..
always have plenty of those. Sometimes I give some out for free
The trend from October 2023 was/is too steep and unsustainable. The S&P is far extended from the March 2020 trend line and it is way extended from the 2009 trend line. I would not be surprised for it to come back to 2020 trend thru both price and time… TBD.
Indeed, a true correction in the sense of correcting stretched sentiment/valuations/technicals